Vegas is Back, Baby! #Vacation #Vegas #Caturday

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As of today, I’m officially vaccinated, as in two shots plus two weeks. I’m still wearing my mask to reduce contact points for those that aren’t vaccinated. Why? Well, why not? My masks are cool.

Everybody’s politics can suck it!
I take that back.
Freedom!!!

Anyhoo, because I’m good-to-go on that front, I’m resuming my annual trip to Las Vegas this year, which will be in mid-September instead of the typical Columbus Day week. I fly out on September 11th.

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The timing is a shame because a coworker is flying out Columbus Day week to renew her wedding vows in a DC-comics inspired wedding. Her husband is currently choosing between Batman and Catwoman being married by the Joker, or the Joker and Harley Quinn being married by Batman. But that’s another tangent.

Blackjack

I take blackjack very seriously, and since developing a regular system, I always come back a winner. Part of my success is that, whereas your credit card may earn you free gas or airfare, my credit card that I use for everything earns me gambling comps with MGM hotels. (I should be paid for that link.) I’m going to enjoy fine dining every night and pay only for tax and tip. I win automatically just for paying my phone bill or filling my car’s gas tank. A more on-point part of my success is practice, so I’ve brought out the gambling set to start practicing. I’ll be using this to train the aforementioned coworker as well.

The system is progressive betting (not card counting), and the trick is a difficult combination of patience and discipline. If you look up progressive betting online, the definition changes depending on who you ask. Many conveniently use the term to refer exclusively to regressive betting, which is the exact opposite of what I do. They do so because they’re card counters trying to sell you their system, and they can easily prove that regressive betting is a big loser. I increase my bet while winning, and my maximum bet per hand is capped. Despite the criticism, its only genuine downside is that it cuts against human nature. That’s where the discipline come in. Without it, you’ll lose. Stick with the plan for the long haul, and you’ll likely win. My personal experience, both long-term and short-term, is too one-sided in my favor to worry about what those blackjack entrepreneurs say. Here’s my greatest war story.

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Trial by Fire

My favorite gambling spot is Mandalay Bay. Three trips ago, I showed up with a $3,000 bankroll, but I was playing as if I had only $2,500 ($25 base bet). That gave me a $500 cushion. The first day, there were no $25 tables on the floor, so they opened one in the high-roller room for me. After 4 hours, I was up about $400, and they moved me out of the high-roller room. Normally, I play between 10-15 hours a day with only one break to eat, but the casino had forced me to stop, so I took the opportunity to get some lunch. It wrecked my rhythm. I then went back to the grind. After another 10 hours of gambling, I lost about $2,200, so I was $1,800 down (out of $3,000). I didn’t panic, but it forced me to readjust my routine.

The next day, I head over to Excalibur, which always likes to hand me money. I spent about 12 hours on the table betting as if my bankroll was $1,000 (which makes sense; I had $1,200 left), and for the last hour I was by myself. I was already up quite a bit at that point, but it was rapid fire. The dealer and I were on a freaking roll, but I was killing her, departing from the system and betting over $100 a hand at times. When all was said and done, I won $1,900, so I was $100 up over all (even factoring huge tips to the dealer).

How do you think I reacted to that?

I wasn’t satisfied. I don’t care that I was up $100. I don’t care that both casinos were part of the MGM network. I wanted my $1,800 back from Mandalay Bay, dammit! So, for my last day of gambling, that’s where I ended the day. (I beat up Luxor before heading there.) It was the longest day of gambling I ever had: over 16 hours. Obviously, people come and go over that period, but every table makeup was filled with people who knew what they were doing (like my now-Facebook friend, Kaia) or wanted to learn. The table was perfect for almost every minute of those 16+ hours. By 3 am, I was up only $650. If I didn’t have to fly out fairly early the next morning, I would have kept going. With all the comped food, I ended up about $1,100 (40% of my betting bankroll) for the trip.

Of course, no one believes any of this until I actually show them, but those that have seen it never doubt me again. And if you doubt me, I don’t care. My winnings have paid for a Surface Pro 3 and a laptop, and almost every year it pays for my hotel for my other regular vacation in February. Believe me or don’t believe me; I don’t give a shit. Unlike the card counters trying to sell you something, I don’t make money if you believe me.

BTW, card counting absolutely works and is the best system if you can pull it off. I used it successfully when I first started my trips, but a good betting strategy is more relaxing and far less prone to fatal mistakes. I’ll occasionally do it as a mental exercise but rarely base my bets on the card count.

What’s Next?

Are you kidding? I’m wiring my gambling money to Mandalay Bay ahead of time, and as soon as I’m checked into my hotel, I’m heading downstairs to win that remaining $1,150 back! Okay, not really. I’ve already done that in past trips, thought New York, New York is still up on me. I do need a new laptop, and sure, I can afford to buy one, but I’d rather have MGM pay for it. ūüôā However, I raise an issue for those heading to Vegas. Some casinos will accept wires ahead of time. Mandalay Bay is one of them even if you aren’t staying there. Whatever money you want to apply to gambling, wire it to them. Otherwise, you have to find a branch of your bank off-Strip that’s open, or you’ll have to carry a bunch of cash on your flights to and from there. That money is earmarked for gambling only, and after your trip, they wire whatever’s left back to the account from which you wired it. The only money you can withdraw from those funds as cash are winnings. For Mandalay Bay, you can transfer the money to any MGM casino if you want a change of scenery. They have a lot of properties in Vegas.

N.b., no system is fool proof. Always go into a casino being fully prepared to bottom out, which means you should never bet your rent money. You can spot people doing that all the time, and it’s sad. Pit bosses and dealers are always impressed with my calm demeanor and sense of humor, even in the face of big losses. If you can’t afford to lose everything, or you don’t appreciate that losses are part of the game (it’s just math), don’t play. Period.

Oh, and I almost forgot.

Caturday shall not be denied!!!

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There’s a Hole at the Bottom of Math @veritasium #math #MTG

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This is an interesting video about how math with always have unanswered questions.

Just watching the first minute gives you something to think about. Gaming nerds will appreciate the mention around 3:28. Beyond that, you have to enjoy math to tolerate this, as it doesn’t make its point until 20:25 (fortunately, I do), but this may appeal to hardcore history nerds as well. Beyond the point of the video, this reminded me that many of the views we hold aren’t actually objective truths. We just really want to be right, so much so that we fracture into factions and hate on the others. Just an observation. Make of it what you will.

People are weird.

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Follow Derek Muller @veritasium

Breaking: Wizards Under Fire for Providing Enjoyment to Many #Gaming #MTG @wizards_magic

Wizards of the Coast was just sued by several Magic: the Gathering judges. The complaint can be found here:¬†https://www.scribd.com/doc/309867466/Shaw-Et-Al-v-Wizards-of-the-Coast-LLC. I’ve read the complaint, but I just found out about this, and I’ve spoken with no one about this. That being said….

This is crazy. Probably not enough to get sanctions against the plaintiffs, but crazy. They allege and employer-employer relationship, but I don’t see a logical basis for that claim, which would mean that the entire suit falls apart. (Note: They don’t need to prove that basis at this point. I’m simply stating that, in my mind, there’s no factual basis for that claim.) I don’t play Magic, but I’ve organized RP games for the DC area for over a decade, even running a convention for a couple of years. During the 3rd edition, Living Greyhawk days, I took two tests to earn some sort of certification as a judge. Nevertheless, we all know that this is volunteer work. We’re “working” for the community, not the company, and I know of no instance when WotC has ever claimed that judges were anything other than volunteers.
 
Most important to me is, if Shaw, et al. win, without exaggeration, I predict that it’s the end of organized play of any sort. If everyone who judges a game day for Magic, Dungeons & Dragons, or any other organized play event would need to be paid, reimbursed for expenses, etc., then these events have negative value to the companies that sanction them. There’s simply no reason even to allow them, let alone provide support for them.
In the long run, who does that help (other than the attorneys for the plaintiff)?
Please, if someone has a different view, let me know. If your argument is, “It’s really hard work,” then you’re missing my point. I’m one of the last people that needs to be lectured on how much work this sort of thing is. I’ve done it¬†for a decade, suffering massive burnout from time to time, but it doesn’t justify me being paid.

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Follow Magic the Gathering on Twitter @wizards_magic

#GenCon Indy, 2013! #gaming #games #RPG #TDA CC: @Luddite_Vic

For the first time, I’m going to GenCon and not working for Baldman Games. (You should work for them if you like Dungeons & Dragons. They give great rewards for running games.) I’m just going to play (though I’m running four slots). I’m honestly not sure how much gaming I’ll want to do. I might get bored and do something else. In any case, like all the other con-goers, I sat there at my computer just waiting for the countdown clock to strike zero at noon. I was lucky enough to be assigned #738 in the queue. Anything under 1,000 is lucky as all hell, and as a result, I got everything I wanted. This includes two puzzle-oriented True Dungeon adventures and a few role-playing games, none of which I’ve ever before played. Isn’t that what GenCon is supposed to be about: Trying new games? That’s my philosophy.¬†I bought an extra ticket for each of the True Dungeon adventures, so I can help out a friend get into the game.

My current GenCon schedule is below. I have absolutely no complaints.

Wednesday: Fate Core (RPG1345241) at 8pm

Thursday: Dungeon World (RPG1341359) at 1pm, then the One Ring (RPG1343873) at 8pm.

Friday: True Dungeon (Lycan’s Afoot, TDA1348116) at 9:37am, then running the Gamers’ Syndicate new living campaign adventures at 1pm (RPG1343708)¬†and 7pm¬†(RPG1343710).

Saturday:¬†True Dungeon (Golembane, TDA1348648) at 9:39am, then running the Gamers’ Syndicate new living campaign adventures at 1pm (RPG1343709) and 7pm (RPG1343711).

Sunday: A seminar on game design (SEM1346700) at 10am, then Far Trek RPG (RPG1342003) at noon.

This schedule lets me sleep in for the most part, and gives me plenty of time to roam the halls and keep myself fed. Let me know if you’re in any of my games.

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#TabletopDay! @slyflourish @rosamoonshadow @nullzone42 #fluxx #ascension #dungeon #cah

table-top-logoYesterday was Table Top Day, and it didn’t disappoint. For one, my hosts were Mike and Michelle Shea (aka @slyflourish and¬†@RosaMoonshadow respectively), who have both earned the title of Gamer Extraordinaire. I also played with Jorge,¬†someone I’d never met before (always a plus in gaming) as well as familiar friends, Nate (@nullzone42) and John (not on Twitter).

For me, the company you keep is always more important than the games you play, but¬†for the games themselves, I played the newest version of one of my favorite games from childhood, Dungeon!, and one of my favorite relatively new games, Cards Against Humanity. I usually lose the latter because I’m completely immersed in the humor of the game, whereas it often offends everyone else’s sensibilities eventually. With offended people judging my outrageous plays, it’s hard to win that game. Still, I tied for first place against Michelle. Dungeon involved a character death, and a series of ridiculous rolls that resulted in a ridiculous (but fun!) showing.

More importantly, I played three games I’d never played before: Ascension, Fluxx (twice!), and Pandemic. Pandemic is a cooperative game, and we lost. It’s well-balanced, and you’re always just one step ahead of failure, not knowing whether you’ll win. In an¬†apocalyptic¬†scenario, that’s exactly how you’d expect a real world scenario to play out.

I played Fluxx twice, winning the first and losing the second (to Mike). If you haven’t played it, you need to play it. It’s fun. It’s a card game by Looney Labs ¬†in which the rules themselves constantly change. The second game was themed around Monty Python, so that really played to my interests.

Ascension was interesting, but it’s not a game I’d have to play again. I could play it and enjoy it, so feel free to invite me to any games, but there are better games for me. Mike scored an 86 (IIRC), and Nate and I tied at 66, so surprisingly¬†I didn’t do poorly for a first timer, but I wasn’t much of a threat for winning. In fact, for all I know, I miscalculated my score, so I could easily have come in third.

Overall, a Saturday playing games with good people, some of whom I had never met before, and playing games, some of which I’ve never played before, is about as ideal a situation as any gamer can have. Mission accomplished.

Thanks for hosting, Mike and Michelle!

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Internet Scam Alert: Most “Kickstarter” Projects Just Useless Crap (via @theOnion)

Sadly, at times, this is the truth. Kickstarter has a tendency to remove risk from the process of business, and that encourages people to do projects half-assed.

In the end, I suspect Kickstarter will implode. After getting burned enough times, people will contribute only to projects put forth by well-established companies. This might turn out to be just as tragic. First, I’d like to see Kickstarter be used as a way for the new guy with no funds to be given his shot. Unfortunately, there’s no way to distinguish those guys from the people who just don’t want to spend their own money and aren’t really in need of that break, so that’s a pipe dream. Second, it’s unethical for¬†large, well-established companies to take start-up capital from people who aren’t given an ownership interest in the company, and it’s just as unethical for small, well-established companies to do the same unless the backers are given very good value for their contributions. (I won’t call them investments unless an ownership interest is attached.) Unless Kickstarter starts enforcing these rules, this is also a pipe dream.

Kickstarter should start scrutinizing which projects it allows. Until they start, I won’t give them another look.

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